Forget electoral math, demographics and polls. Julia Carter laid out the reasons why Trump would win both the Republican nomination and the election, back on 29 February this year. She was spot on, and reading this in conjunction with my piece about the tactics of his campaign, I wish I'd kept this post as a template for that. In the interests of full disclosure, Julia Carter is my niece, and ever since she was a kid we have rarely agreed on politics. But she was right this time, and it's the best piece of analysis I've seen--especially given how long before the election she saw what would happen.
WHY TRUMP WILL WIN
by Julia Carter
It is really incredible how Donald Trump is completely outsmarting
and manipulating the mainstream media with its nonstop coverage and
dissection of every intentionally
ridiculous comment he makes. His strategy is totally winning and he is
most certainly a more dangerous threat to Hillary Clinton than Rubio or
Cruz. How anyone does not understand this is beyond me.
1. Rubio would do no better than Romney did on an electoral level. There is no state he could win that Romney didn't.
2. The Latino vote will ultimately not affect Trump. California and
Texas will vote blue and red respectively regardless, and his turnout
affect in Florida among whites will offset any uptick in Latino voting,
which is always low. Only the Cubans vote in high numbers and they don't
associate themselves with Trump's wall comments. And even blacks like
Trump more than Romney...ouch!
3. Trump galvanizes a base and
appeals to independents. He can win swing states. He can win northern
states. The votes of the Republicans who say they'll refuse to vote for
him will ultimately not matter in die-hard red states. Again, it's all
about the swing states.
4. And Trump's biggest advantage is that
just as many people who will refuse to vote for him will also refuse to
vote for Hillary. She is totally divisive for Independents and
non-inspirational for Democrats. You cannot count on people voting for
her just to vote against Trump.
Conclusion? Bernie Sanders would
be a much more formidable opponent. But he won't be and that gives
Trump very favorable chances in November. And guess what? Sadly enough,
Trump is more qualified than the other two Republican front runners. He
is the least full of shit and the best player in the game of thrones. He
has outsmarted the system. Nations get the governments they deserve.
-Miami, 29 February 2016