FRIDAY MORNING TIGHT END, WEEK 18: WILD CARD WEEKEND
I never thought I
would say this, but I actually miss the nfl.com 'expert' Pick Em game
on which my picks (allowing for my luddite inability to move the
sliders properly) appeared for the past four years. I finished second
the first year, and first each of the next three, even last season when I
(and almost everyone else) had a off year (just 62.5 per cent right).
Doing this for a period of years teaches you that margins are small: I improved this year
to 66.1 per cent, but that's just eight games better in a 17 week
season, or one every other week. This year I also finished with a rush:
from week 11 onward I was 82-29, which is a 74 per cent pace. I'd
like to say it was because I'd figured things out better after half
the season, but who knows, that would sound like Outcome Bias, which I am always criticising. I am pretty consistent: in 12 seasons
picking weekly with Friday Morning Tight End, I've finished between
165 and 176 games right ten times.
But without the Pick
Em game to measure against, I looked around this week to see how I'd compare. Turns out
168 correct would put me atop Pete Prisco & Co at CBS Sportsline (Dave Richard was best
with 167) and five games up on ESPN's experts (KC Joyner with 165 was best, but they
also gave their guessers this season's two ties as wins). I'd run away with NFL.com's
Gameday Morning, won by Kurt Warner with 154. The best I found were Sam Farmer of the LA
Times and Elliott Harrison on NFL.com, both
with 170 right, so they get the championship. And here's a hint: it
won't get much easier in the playoffs, even though it looks like it
ought to. There is a very strong pull to pick all four home teams in
this Wild Card round, but that means means you'd have two nine win teams
favoured against teams that won 12 and 11. Go figure....
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