ARE BETTORS MISUNDERESTIMATING THE EAGLES?
We did alright here in the Conference Championships last week, didn't we? Pats-Jags under, Eagles-Vikes over (the Eagles
got within half a point all by themselves) and the Eagles on the
moneyline. Which sets up the Eagles and the Pats in the big one.
It isn't the dream
match America supposedly wanted: the home-town Vikings team becoming
the first to play the Super Bowl in their own stadium against the
team that unites America in hatred, the Patriots. The Eagles are in
one sense plucky underdogs against the perennially successful Pats,
but in another, they rank among America's least-likeable fan bases.
They are the ones who attacked Santa Claus with snowballs. Whose
stadium was the first with its own on-site night court to deal with
drunken assaults and the like. I once described Philadelphia fans (in
the context of baseball, but still relevant) by pointing out that in
other places, New York for example, fans threw batteries at the
opposition's outfielders. But only in Philly did they boo the thrower
if he missed.
Joking aside,
Philadelphia has a point about not getting enough respect, not least
from the bookies. They were the top seeds in the NFC, but underdogs
at home against both Atlanta and Minnesota. They could easily have
lost to the Falcons, whom they outplayed but allowed four chances at
a winning touchdown from inside the ten yard line. They emerged with
a 15-10 win: and both Atlanta scores came off punt turnovers that
handed them great field position. Minnesota was a different story.
What seemed to be a balanced matchup of great defenses and effective
offenses, both operating with backup quarterbacks, turned into a
rout. The easiest explanation is that the Vikings' D was built not to
give up the big play, especially on third down, and once the Eagles
hit on a couple of those, their offense wasn't geared to come back
from way down. Any time your offense becomes one-dimensional, your
defense can get better, and that's what happened.
In the other
Conference Final, the Jags seemed to have the Pats on the roaps.
Their defense, up there in the same discussion as Philly's and
Minny's, stifled them throughout the first half, until at the two
minute warning, they retreated slightly, and Tom Brady carved them up
for a TD in just over a minute. Then came an inexplicable bit of
coaching, as the Jags, their lead reduced to 14-10, and with 55
seconds and two time outs, elected not to pursue further points. To
me this seemed like running up a flag of truce in the middle of the
battle. The Eagles, up 21-7 with even less time in their first half,
would march downfield quickly and get a field goal to extend their
halftime lead. That the Jags wouldn't try the same spoke of caution,
if not fear.
And so it played
out. Protecting the lead, as they had in the last two minutes of the
first half, created vulnerabilities in the Jags' defense. The Pats,
as they usually do, adjusted at halftime; their defense played better
even as the Jags' offense became predictable. And Brady, throwing
with remarkable accuracy, brought them home with the win. Special
kudos to Danny Amendola, who caught the final two touchdown passes,
the second with a balletic toe-touch in the end zone, returned a punt
20 yards to set up a score, threw a 20 yard completion to Dion Lewis
(which Lewis 'fumbled' in the game's most controversial play) and
threw a key block on the James White's TD run in the first half. My
one-time BBC Super Bowl partner had a pretty good game.
The opening line on
the Super Bowl settled quickly at the Patriots minus 5.5, which
seemed to still be undervaluing the Eagles. Most of this is down to
quarterback bias; Nick Foles is a quality back-up (who had a great
year in his first year as a starter under Chip Kelly in Philly his
first time around there) but he is a backup, and he has limitations.
The Eagles have a five point win and the Pats a four point win among
their four playoff victories, and given the similiarities between the
Eagles and Jags, 5.5 seemed worth taking with the Eagles. It is
likely to go down as money flows in on Philly (in fact there was a
huge bet at one casino in Las Vegas which drove their line down a
full point) but we'll look at the game again next Friday, and some of
the ancillary bets on offer too....
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