In case you don't subscribe to my Friday Morning Tight End column at Patreon.com, here's a piece I posted (free to public view) last night. You could also check out an analysis from the previous day, of how quarterbacks disrupt the draft...
You've been sitting on the first pick in the 2019 draft since the last day of the 2018 season, and with the pick due in the next 24 (or whatever it is as you read this) hours, you haven't figured out what you are going to with it. Or maybe you have. Maybe you're the Arizona Cardinals.
The Arizona Cardinals appear to me to be hanging on until the last moment, as if waiting for something to come along that will be the classic Offer You Can't Refuse. This could be a viable, indeed successful, strategy. It could also be a classic case of slow-playing a hand and watching everyone fold rather than get sandbagged. Who Blinks First? But be aware I am dusting off my old Channel Five nickname of Crads (half Card, half Crap) for Arizona, just in case.
The point of interest is, of course Kyler Murray, who has been the beneficiary of the classic draft pattern of first building up players based on tape, then down-grading them/going beserk over their Combine measurements/times, then finally spending the last pre-draft month trying to tear them apart once again.Can you remember back to when Dwayne Haskins was the consensus number one and Murray was too small? Before Donald Jones somehow boosted himself by throwing passes in shorts to guys who weren't covered while no one rushed him?
I detailed much of this in my column yesterday, included the way the Cardinals number one pick last year, Josh Rosen, played a season behind a balsa-wood line, with a modest group of receivers and a scheme that thought David Johnson was John Henry Johnson (I changed the reference just to give you something new). That was a big part in getting rookie coach Steve Wilks fired (but not GM Steve Keim, who hired Wilks and made the draft pick and built the team around that pick. Go figure). Keim then hired Kliff Kingsbury, a noted QB whisperer for probably not much reason. But think about Kingsbury for a moment, and you may realise why his vision might not be as much about whispering in Rosen's ear, as much as rolling out an NFL version of his offense behind Murray.
Kingsbury played QB at Texas Tech in Mike Leach's Air Raid offense, and was good. He was a sixth-round pick by the Pats but spent the Super Bowl 2003 season on IR. He signed with four other NFL teams, and threw two passes for the J-E-S-T Jets in 2005. The Jets also sent him to NFL Europe, where he sort of split time at QB for Cologne with Shane Boyd. My memory was simply that he lack zip on his throws. He couldn't get any playing time in Canada, with either Montreal or Winnipeg, so he retired and went into coaching.
He was a QB coach at Houston under Kevin Sumlin (Case Keenum). Offensive coordinator under Sumlin at Texas A&M (Johnny Manziel). Head coach (2013-2018) at his alma mater, where his first QB was walk-on freshman Baker Mayfield. When he got hurt, freshman Davis Webb took over. Mayfield transferred to Oklahoma (hello, Heisman) and when he left his replacement was a pro baseball player called Tyler Murray. Hold that thought.
In 2014 Webb gave way to Patrick Mahomes (Vincent Testaverde was their third-stringer) and after the season transferred to Cal. Mahomes then had two big seasons before leaving for the NFL, but Tech's overall record in those four years was 23-26. He went 6-7 in 2017 with Nic Shimonek at QB, and 5-7 last year, at which point he was fired. He was hired in December as offensive coordinator at USC, then resigned when NFL teams came calling and was hired by Arizona in January.
Perhaps the Big 12 is tougher to win in than the NFL, but somehow I don't think so. But looking at that history two things stand out: 1: His most successful QBs were not big pocket passers, although Mahomes could be described as a pocket passer. Kyler Murray is not a big pocket passer. Josh Rosen pretty much is. And 2: he had Mayfield and went to Webb and had Webb and went to Mahomes. Who does he think he is, Jon Gruden? Keep that thought in mind two.
Finally, one more point about Murray. The best comparison I can think of with Rusell Wilson is that they both played pro baseball while playing college QB. Although Wilson isn't really 5-11; at the Combine he was 5-10 5/8, just enough to round up. But Wilson had four years as a college starter, and I did a few of his Wisconsin games when I did Big 10 for Eurosport. They were a powerful team where NC State wasn't, and he wasn't running for his life. They were a run-first team (Montee Ball ran for nearly 2,000 yards at 6.3 per carry, backed up by James White, and with 20 carries for Melvin Gordon) and Wilson was phenomenally efficient (72% completions, 10.3 ypa, 33 TD 4 INT) playing in the pocket.
Yes, small players have some problems with finding passing lanes and seeing over rushers, much worse in the NFL than in college, especially in spread-style college offenses. Doug Flutie was 5-9, but I think he might be better today than he was in the NFL of the 80s playing for Mike Ditka. Sonny Jurgensen, the evolutionary Philip Rivers, was only 5-11. Drew Brees (6-0), Michael Vick (6-0) Mayfield (6-1)...need I go on. What's an inch or two between friends?
But Murray will have to adjust like Mayfield did, at least once Freddie Kitchens took over coordinating in Cleveland. Of course, Kingsbury will supposedly design an offense to make things easy for him (do you think Jon Gruden will?)
So Arizona remains on the clock and these are their options:
1. Hold on to the pick and draft Murray. This makes Josh Rosen expendable, unless you've been paying attention and figure Kingsbury will keep both guys until Rosen transfers out to Oklahoma. The problem with the draft poker game, is they have to then figure out how they can maximize Rosen's trade value (which involves waiting) unless it turns out Murray can't beat him out. If he can, Rosen becomes double-damaged goods, and odds are a team craving Rosen won't want to shove him in right away unless they have to—they'd rather groom him and let him decompress after the 2018 debacle. But this scenario means you've spent two straight top picks on QBs, which is like losing two wives to 'accidents'. One is a tragedy.Two looks suspicious. OR
1a. Hold on to the pick and draft the best player out there. In my mind, that would be Quinnen Williams, but D line, especially interior, is not a major need. Their biggest needs can likely be filled lower down the draft, though they might take an edge rusher (with everyone thinking Joey Bosa's going 2 to the Niners, they ought to make some Bosa noises. But they would really be better served by trading down. Since neither the Niners nor Jets are going to take a QB, and there are plenty of edge rushers out there, they may not have any leverage UNLESS they announce they don't want Murray. That will start everyone thinking. Can Oakland stay put and still get Murray if Gruden wants him?
So what do they about trading down? Can they do a Bosa feint and swap with the Niners? That probably wouldn't yield as much as they'd like, and the most likely scenario is:
2. Trade the pick for someone looking to go up to one for Murray. Your most likely suspects here would be the Raiders, holding picks 4, 24, 27 and 35. Does Gruden really want Murray? He could bring him along behind David Carr, and Murray on his rookie deal will be cap friendly for a couple of years after that. And he might be able to net a 2 for Carr down the road. It's hard to see the Giants needing Murray, and at 6 they might be able to pick up whoever they do want in the draft, or they could hope Haskins or Jones (if either is the guy, falls to 17). But here's another plan:
3. Trade Rosen now and draft Murray. By now I mean before the pick; not necessarily waiting until they're on the clock and hoping Keim turns into Kevin Kostner. Would the Giants give up 17 for Rosen? Would the Skins give up 15? Or 15 and 46 for Rosen and 65? If Kingsbury likes Murray that much, a one for Rosen would save lots of faces and get them a valuable pick at a need. If they wait until after they draft Murray, most of their leverage is lost, at least until some team loses a QB to injury in August or September. OR:
4. Draft Murray and trade him: This is really the same scenario as pick 2, except now they know you mean business. Think the Chargers drafting Eli Manning, whose father had told them he wouldn't play in San Diego, then trading him to the Giants for Philip Rivers and a 3rd (PK Nate Kaeding) along with a next year 1st (OLB Shawn Merriman) and 5th (traded to Tampa for OT Roman Oben). That was a pretty good haul for the Chargers, although Kaeding may have been cursed. Maybe Rivers too.
By now my brain is over-heating, and I half expect the Redskins to draft Sonny Jurgensen and the Jest to trade Adam Gase to Arizona. I feel grateful that by Sunday morning this will all be over...
You've been sitting on the first pick in the 2019 draft since the last day of the 2018 season, and with the pick due in the next 24 (or whatever it is as you read this) hours, you haven't figured out what you are going to with it. Or maybe you have. Maybe you're the Arizona Cardinals.
The Arizona Cardinals appear to me to be hanging on until the last moment, as if waiting for something to come along that will be the classic Offer You Can't Refuse. This could be a viable, indeed successful, strategy. It could also be a classic case of slow-playing a hand and watching everyone fold rather than get sandbagged. Who Blinks First? But be aware I am dusting off my old Channel Five nickname of Crads (half Card, half Crap) for Arizona, just in case.
The point of interest is, of course Kyler Murray, who has been the beneficiary of the classic draft pattern of first building up players based on tape, then down-grading them/going beserk over their Combine measurements/times, then finally spending the last pre-draft month trying to tear them apart once again.Can you remember back to when Dwayne Haskins was the consensus number one and Murray was too small? Before Donald Jones somehow boosted himself by throwing passes in shorts to guys who weren't covered while no one rushed him?
I detailed much of this in my column yesterday, included the way the Cardinals number one pick last year, Josh Rosen, played a season behind a balsa-wood line, with a modest group of receivers and a scheme that thought David Johnson was John Henry Johnson (I changed the reference just to give you something new). That was a big part in getting rookie coach Steve Wilks fired (but not GM Steve Keim, who hired Wilks and made the draft pick and built the team around that pick. Go figure). Keim then hired Kliff Kingsbury, a noted QB whisperer for probably not much reason. But think about Kingsbury for a moment, and you may realise why his vision might not be as much about whispering in Rosen's ear, as much as rolling out an NFL version of his offense behind Murray.
Kingsbury played QB at Texas Tech in Mike Leach's Air Raid offense, and was good. He was a sixth-round pick by the Pats but spent the Super Bowl 2003 season on IR. He signed with four other NFL teams, and threw two passes for the J-E-S-T Jets in 2005. The Jets also sent him to NFL Europe, where he sort of split time at QB for Cologne with Shane Boyd. My memory was simply that he lack zip on his throws. He couldn't get any playing time in Canada, with either Montreal or Winnipeg, so he retired and went into coaching.
He was a QB coach at Houston under Kevin Sumlin (Case Keenum). Offensive coordinator under Sumlin at Texas A&M (Johnny Manziel). Head coach (2013-2018) at his alma mater, where his first QB was walk-on freshman Baker Mayfield. When he got hurt, freshman Davis Webb took over. Mayfield transferred to Oklahoma (hello, Heisman) and when he left his replacement was a pro baseball player called Tyler Murray. Hold that thought.
In 2014 Webb gave way to Patrick Mahomes (Vincent Testaverde was their third-stringer) and after the season transferred to Cal. Mahomes then had two big seasons before leaving for the NFL, but Tech's overall record in those four years was 23-26. He went 6-7 in 2017 with Nic Shimonek at QB, and 5-7 last year, at which point he was fired. He was hired in December as offensive coordinator at USC, then resigned when NFL teams came calling and was hired by Arizona in January.
Perhaps the Big 12 is tougher to win in than the NFL, but somehow I don't think so. But looking at that history two things stand out: 1: His most successful QBs were not big pocket passers, although Mahomes could be described as a pocket passer. Kyler Murray is not a big pocket passer. Josh Rosen pretty much is. And 2: he had Mayfield and went to Webb and had Webb and went to Mahomes. Who does he think he is, Jon Gruden? Keep that thought in mind two.
Finally, one more point about Murray. The best comparison I can think of with Rusell Wilson is that they both played pro baseball while playing college QB. Although Wilson isn't really 5-11; at the Combine he was 5-10 5/8, just enough to round up. But Wilson had four years as a college starter, and I did a few of his Wisconsin games when I did Big 10 for Eurosport. They were a powerful team where NC State wasn't, and he wasn't running for his life. They were a run-first team (Montee Ball ran for nearly 2,000 yards at 6.3 per carry, backed up by James White, and with 20 carries for Melvin Gordon) and Wilson was phenomenally efficient (72% completions, 10.3 ypa, 33 TD 4 INT) playing in the pocket.
Yes, small players have some problems with finding passing lanes and seeing over rushers, much worse in the NFL than in college, especially in spread-style college offenses. Doug Flutie was 5-9, but I think he might be better today than he was in the NFL of the 80s playing for Mike Ditka. Sonny Jurgensen, the evolutionary Philip Rivers, was only 5-11. Drew Brees (6-0), Michael Vick (6-0) Mayfield (6-1)...need I go on. What's an inch or two between friends?
But Murray will have to adjust like Mayfield did, at least once Freddie Kitchens took over coordinating in Cleveland. Of course, Kingsbury will supposedly design an offense to make things easy for him (do you think Jon Gruden will?)
So Arizona remains on the clock and these are their options:
1. Hold on to the pick and draft Murray. This makes Josh Rosen expendable, unless you've been paying attention and figure Kingsbury will keep both guys until Rosen transfers out to Oklahoma. The problem with the draft poker game, is they have to then figure out how they can maximize Rosen's trade value (which involves waiting) unless it turns out Murray can't beat him out. If he can, Rosen becomes double-damaged goods, and odds are a team craving Rosen won't want to shove him in right away unless they have to—they'd rather groom him and let him decompress after the 2018 debacle. But this scenario means you've spent two straight top picks on QBs, which is like losing two wives to 'accidents'. One is a tragedy.Two looks suspicious. OR
1a. Hold on to the pick and draft the best player out there. In my mind, that would be Quinnen Williams, but D line, especially interior, is not a major need. Their biggest needs can likely be filled lower down the draft, though they might take an edge rusher (with everyone thinking Joey Bosa's going 2 to the Niners, they ought to make some Bosa noises. But they would really be better served by trading down. Since neither the Niners nor Jets are going to take a QB, and there are plenty of edge rushers out there, they may not have any leverage UNLESS they announce they don't want Murray. That will start everyone thinking. Can Oakland stay put and still get Murray if Gruden wants him?
So what do they about trading down? Can they do a Bosa feint and swap with the Niners? That probably wouldn't yield as much as they'd like, and the most likely scenario is:
2. Trade the pick for someone looking to go up to one for Murray. Your most likely suspects here would be the Raiders, holding picks 4, 24, 27 and 35. Does Gruden really want Murray? He could bring him along behind David Carr, and Murray on his rookie deal will be cap friendly for a couple of years after that. And he might be able to net a 2 for Carr down the road. It's hard to see the Giants needing Murray, and at 6 they might be able to pick up whoever they do want in the draft, or they could hope Haskins or Jones (if either is the guy, falls to 17). But here's another plan:
3. Trade Rosen now and draft Murray. By now I mean before the pick; not necessarily waiting until they're on the clock and hoping Keim turns into Kevin Kostner. Would the Giants give up 17 for Rosen? Would the Skins give up 15? Or 15 and 46 for Rosen and 65? If Kingsbury likes Murray that much, a one for Rosen would save lots of faces and get them a valuable pick at a need. If they wait until after they draft Murray, most of their leverage is lost, at least until some team loses a QB to injury in August or September. OR:
4. Draft Murray and trade him: This is really the same scenario as pick 2, except now they know you mean business. Think the Chargers drafting Eli Manning, whose father had told them he wouldn't play in San Diego, then trading him to the Giants for Philip Rivers and a 3rd (PK Nate Kaeding) along with a next year 1st (OLB Shawn Merriman) and 5th (traded to Tampa for OT Roman Oben). That was a pretty good haul for the Chargers, although Kaeding may have been cursed. Maybe Rivers too.
By now my brain is over-heating, and I half expect the Redskins to draft Sonny Jurgensen and the Jest to trade Adam Gase to Arizona. I feel grateful that by Sunday morning this will all be over...
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