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Around Super Bowl time,
some fogeys older than myself like to quote the old adage that says
'defense wins championships'. They also say you need an 'elite'
quarterback or an 'elite' running back to win, and that's easily
disproved. Although we think of teams with 'great' defenses, and
remember the Super Bowls they have won, few Super Bowls match great
offenses vs great defenses, and of the recent games where you might
argue defense did win it, you could only call two or three of those
teams great defenses (2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, maybe 2005 Steelers).
We look at the adage when we see great offenses getting stopped by
less than immortal defenses: the Patriots beating the Rams, the
Giants doing it twice to the Pats. And you can certainly argue that
the Saints beat the Colts because they played better defense. Super
Bowl winners generally don't establish any trend at all, though in
any game you can always try to say the winning team played better
defense. But did defense win the championship?
The guys who claim it
does often quote the table of the highest-scoring teams in NFL
history. They'll tell you that, in the Super Bowl era, there were 28
teams that averaged 30 points per game or more, and only five won the
Super Bowl. Interestingly, in the pre-Super Bowl era the numbers were
7 of 23, including the highest-scoring team of all time, the 1950
Rams, who averaged 38.8 ppg, went 9-3, and lost the NFL title game.
In the Super Bowl era, the highest scoring teams are the 2007 Pats
(36.8), 2011 Packers (35.0), 2012 Pats (34.8) 1998 Vikes (34.75),and
the 2011 Saints 34.2. None of them won the Super Bowl; in fact only
the 2007 Pats even made it to the big game. Note that the 07 Pats and
98 Vikes had something in common, besides not winning the Super Bowl,
namely Randy Moss, who happens to be playing for the Niners this
season.
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Context is even more
important when you do what few pundits sever bother to do, and
reverse the equation. If defense wins championships, how come the
stingiest D of all time, the 1977 Atlanta Falcons, allowing only 9.2
ppg, went 7-7 and didn't even make the playoffs? The best of the
Steel Curtain teams, the '76 Steelers, allowing only 9.9 ppg,
shutting out five of their last eight opponents and holding two of
the other three to a field goal, went 10-4 and lost the Conference
championship 24-7 to the Raiders. It's context again; of the ten
'best' defenses of the Super Bowl era, in terms of points per game
allowed, nine played between 1968 and 1977—after which point Bill
Walsh and the competition committee relaxed the blocking rules,
reduced contact on receivers, and made the West Coast offense
possible.
So those teams were losing to each other, or to teams that
allowed 11 or 12 points a game, like the 66 Packers or the 72 and 73
Dolphins.
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Indeed, of the 30
defenses, 12 either didn't make the playoffs at all or lost in the
first round. So considering their era, the 2000 Ravens, tied for
eighth best with the '68 Colts (who lost the Super Bowl to the Jets),
have a great argument to be considered the best defense ever,
especially when you realise their so-called pathetic offense (which still
averaged 20.8ppg) allowed two touchdowns, which means their D
actually gave up only 9.2 ppg, same as the '77 Falcons, in a much
more high-scoring league. A similar argument might be made for the
'85 Bears, who allowed 12.4 ppg but averaged 28.5 and won the Super
Bowl, or the 2002 Bucs, who allowed 12.3 and won the Super Bowl.
This suggests balance
is important. But even when you look at the teams with the biggest
scoring differentials, only one of the top five won a Super Bowl (the
'99 Rams, averaging 32.9 ppg and allowing 15.1). The 2007 Pats were
the best (36.8-17.1, 19.7 differential) followed by the '68 Colts,
the '99 Rams, the '69 Vikes and the '68 Cowboys. The Rams were the
only ones who won the big game. However five of the next six on the
list were Lombardi Trophy winners. We are, however, entering an area
where there is an element of the tautological—good teams win
because they have big winning margins sounds like the kind of thing
Bill Belichick says at post-game press conferences.
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