If you're not interested in football you might not realise that during the NFL season I write a weekly column called Friday Morning Tight End for nfluk.com. Because there were no games to preview last week, and because this year's Super Bowl matches up two teams that play extremely physically up front, I used the extra space to discuss the old issue of whether a good defense beats a good offense. This week's FMTE column, with a Super Bowl preview and an analysis of the NFL's Deer Hunter, Ray Lewis, will be up at nfluk.com tomorrow...
Around Super Bowl time,
some fogeys older than myself like to quote the old adage that says
'defense wins championships'. They also say you need an 'elite'
quarterback or an 'elite' running back to win, and that's easily
disproved. Although we think of teams with 'great' defenses, and
remember the Super Bowls they have won, few Super Bowls match great
offenses vs great defenses, and of the recent games where you might
argue defense did win it, you could only call two or three of those
teams great defenses (2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, maybe 2005 Steelers).
We look at the adage when we see great offenses getting stopped by
less than immortal defenses: the Patriots beating the Rams, the
Giants doing it twice to the Pats. And you can certainly argue that
the Saints beat the Colts because they played better defense. Super
Bowl winners generally don't establish any trend at all, though in
any game you can always try to say the winning team played better
defense. But did defense win the championship?
The guys who claim it
does often quote the table of the highest-scoring teams in NFL
history. They'll tell you that, in the Super Bowl era, there were 28
teams that averaged 30 points per game or more, and only five won the
Super Bowl. Interestingly, in the pre-Super Bowl era the numbers were
7 of 23, including the highest-scoring team of all time, the 1950
Rams, who averaged 38.8 ppg, went 9-3, and lost the NFL title game.
In the Super Bowl era, the highest scoring teams are the 2007 Pats
(36.8), 2011 Packers (35.0), 2012 Pats (34.8) 1998 Vikes (34.75),and
the 2011 Saints 34.2. None of them won the Super Bowl; in fact only
the 2007 Pats even made it to the big game. Note that the 07 Pats and
98 Vikes had something in common, besides not winning the Super Bowl,
namely Randy Moss, who happens to be playing for the Niners this
season.
Consider the 1948
Cardinals, who averaged 32.9 points per game, but lost the NFL
championship to the Steve Van Buren Eagles 7-0. Did they lose because
defense beat offense? Those Eagles averaged 31.2 points per game,
themselves, and the one-touchdown game was due more to the awful
weather conditions than anything else. Were these teams high-scoring
because the AAFC was draining off a lot of the better players from
the NFL (they would merge in 1950)? You always have to account for
context; thus it's no coincidence four of the top five scoring teams
of the Super Bowl era played in the past five seasons.
Context is even more
important when you do what few pundits sever bother to do, and
reverse the equation. If defense wins championships, how come the
stingiest D of all time, the 1977 Atlanta Falcons, allowing only 9.2
ppg, went 7-7 and didn't even make the playoffs? The best of the
Steel Curtain teams, the '76 Steelers, allowing only 9.9 ppg,
shutting out five of their last eight opponents and holding two of
the other three to a field goal, went 10-4 and lost the Conference
championship 24-7 to the Raiders. It's context again; of the ten
'best' defenses of the Super Bowl era, in terms of points per game
allowed, nine played between 1968 and 1977—after which point Bill
Walsh and the competition committee relaxed the blocking rules,
reduced contact on receivers, and made the West Coast offense
possible. So those teams were losing to each other, or to teams that
allowed 11 or 12 points a game, like the 66 Packers or the 72 and 73
Dolphins.
Indeed, of the 30
defenses, 12 either didn't make the playoffs at all or lost in the
first round. So considering their era, the 2000 Ravens, tied for
eighth best with the '68 Colts (who lost the Super Bowl to the Jets),
have a great argument to be considered the best defense ever,
especially when you realise their so-called pathetic offense (which still
averaged 20.8ppg) allowed two touchdowns, which means their D
actually gave up only 9.2 ppg, same as the '77 Falcons, in a much
more high-scoring league. A similar argument might be made for the
'85 Bears, who allowed 12.4 ppg but averaged 28.5 and won the Super
Bowl, or the 2002 Bucs, who allowed 12.3 and won the Super Bowl.
This suggests balance
is important. But even when you look at the teams with the biggest
scoring differentials, only one of the top five won a Super Bowl (the
'99 Rams, averaging 32.9 ppg and allowing 15.1). The 2007 Pats were
the best (36.8-17.1, 19.7 differential) followed by the '68 Colts,
the '99 Rams, the '69 Vikes and the '68 Cowboys. The Rams were the
only ones who won the big game. However five of the next six on the
list were Lombardi Trophy winners. We are, however, entering an area
where there is an element of the tautological—good teams win
because they have big winning margins sounds like the kind of thing
Bill Belichick says at post-game press conferences.
The adage makes more
sense the way Jim Criner once said it to me, 'offense wins games,
defense wins championships', meaning (I think) that a good defense
could always stop an offense, whereas a good offense might not always
be able to top a defense. Think about it in the context of the
Patriots-Ravens game last Sunday. The Pats scored a lot of points this
year, but their offense was largely horizontal, especially without
Gronk. So a typical Patriots' drive contained a lot of plays, and
required a good deal of precision. Watching them run hurry-up on
teams like Houston was a thing of beauty. But if you have to be
precise on six, or eight, or ten plays, it only requires the defense
to upset that precision once, or twice, in order to stop
your drive. The Ravens, by playing a lot of nickel, with Haloti Ngata
at the nose, weren't as bothered by the hurry-up, and their physical
dominance made them less vulnerable to the runs, and allowed them to
disrupt enough plays to force the Pats out of their comfort zone. I'm
convinced Wes Welker was concussed by Bernard Pollard with the hit just before he made a
crucial third-down drop; Welker also seemed to be favouring his ribs.
Tom Brady was clearly thinking about hits when he collapsed after
running into the umpire, when he slid rather than try to get out of
bounds at the end of the first half, and when he threw a ball away on
fourth down rather than try to evade Ngata. The Ravens took the Pats
out of their timing, and the Pats made enough mistakes themselves to
'prove' yet again, as Peter King might say, I'm not saying defense
does win championships, but defense won this one. Or maybe it was the
Ravens' offense. And Jim, at least until the Super Bowl, was right.